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Week hot incidents Comment

In the first quarter GDP growth 2.2% 11.9% CPI increase

Event: This year, all localities and departments to seriously implement the Party Central Committee and State Council decision to deploy, should adhere to the implementation of a package of international financial crises, the overall national economic recovery momentum to further development, made a better start to realize full-year forecast objectives laid a good foundation.

Preliminary estimates, a quarter of gross domestic product 8.0577 trillion yuan, according to comparable prices, an increase of 11.9% over the same period the previous year to speed up by 5.7 percentage points. Among them, the primary industry added value 513.9 billion yuan, up 3.8%; the secondary industry 3.9072 trillion yuan, up 14.5%; the tertiary industry 3.6366 trillion yuan, up 10.2%.

Comments: today announced the March quarter CPI and GDP data, CPI2.2% lower than expected, which to some extent, to dispel concerns about the central inflation, while the other hand, 11.9% first quarter GDP growth, the economy overheated signs, which will force the central bank to adjust monetary policy. The good news for the macro and market neutral bearish.

The State Council shall not be required to buy two suites down payment less than 50%

Event: April 15, yesterday held a State Council executive meeting the requirements of the loan to buy second homes in the family, loans, shall not be less than 50% down payment, interest rate not less than 1.1 times the benchmark rate. In this connection, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Research Institute of Finance, the financial market, said Yin Zhongli, Deputy Director, the introduction of this policy will allow market supply and demand situation of the more obvious changes, the phenomenon can effectively curb real estate speculators. He also noted that the current price from the top of a short or medium term is very close, which means that the future market will face a larger adjustment.

Comments: The current price is already in a state of madness, from the short or medium term top is already very close. This means that the future market will be faced with short-term or medium term, a larger adjustment. Yesterday's meeting of the State Council to accelerate the formulation of housing consumption to a rational tax policy, the implication is that property tax should be introduced soon, however, should the policy change after the second suite can effectively curb the speculation, brought under control upward trend in prices, then the introduction of tax policy may have been slower.

The State Council issued new policy to guide foreign investment to central and western transfer of foreign

Event: Following the end of last year after the State Council executive meeting held in the Central once again stressed the need to further improve the utilization of foreign investment and to develop a more detailed measures. Yesterday, the State Council promulgated the "further improve the utilization of foreign investment on a number of opinions" (hereinafter referred to as "Opinion") required to play a better use of foreign investment in the promotion of technological innovation, industrial upgrading and coordinated regional development, the positive role.

Comments: The expected state recently launched the "New Decade of the Western Development Plan", that is, the promotion of western development package of new policies to guide foreign investment to central and western transfer or just one. The good news for the relevant regional stocks.

SFC: spin-off subsidiary of listed company to the GEM Listing

Event: GEM held recently issued regulatory operations of communication will spread news, current Commission has allowed domestic listed companies, spin-off subsidiary to the GEM, but must meet six criteria: public listed companies not to invest in the issuer to raise funds business; listed company profits the last three years, the normal business operations; listed company and the issuer does not exist in the competitive and non-competition undertaking the next issue, listed companies and issuers of the shareholders or actual controllers and there is no serious issue between the related party transactions ; issuers of listed companies net profit net profit accounted for no more than 50%; the net assets of the issuer of listed companies accounted for no more than 30% of net assets; listed company and subsidiary company directors, supervisors, family members held high and the issuer does not exceed pre-IPO shares 10%.

Comment: Although the spin-off subsidiary, the SFC can be done a certain size limit, but will still have a lot of companies will choose to send a subsidiary of strong earnings potential of the GEM, this area will increase financial pressure on the market, and the other On the one hand to undermine the quality of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen balance. GEM is expected to surge in the number of listed companies, the scarcity of great discounts, leading to frenzied speculation GEM pre-emergence or the movement of deep heavy volume, after the madness will be a painful process of returning the value.

Can a quarterly data is expected to ease the crunch

National Bureau of Statistics recently released data from the first quarter consumer price (CPI) rose 2.2% in March CPI rose 2.4%. Fudan University, Director of Finance and Capital Research Center, said Hsieh 3, in the current CPI data, based on possible rate hikes, there is no need to raise interest rates. But the deposit reserve ratio may be raised again.

Hsieh said on March CPI based on the first two months of falling, but in the first quarter consumer price (CPI) rose 2.2%, the data is low inflation, the figures are even lower than 2.25% of the one-year bank rate. Based on the current CPI can not raise interest rates, there is no need to raise interest rates.

Li Thunder that the severe drought and earthquakes would not generate expected future prices push up the role because, at the moment, this effect is localized, such as Southwest are not major grain-producing provinces, and earthquakes of area is localized.

Speaking on the expected rate hike, Li Thunder, said the economic development of the current situation, the recent rate hikes are not necessary. This is mainly because of economic growth in the first quarter of the high points after three quarters of a gradual drop. Since it is high, so if interest rates may cause the next three quarters of the greater economic downturn, so the economy would be difficult to run smoothly.

Le vote in private that, CPI inflation is expected to increase as scheduled show a more moderate decline. Take into account in March of domestic credit and M2 growth were added down there, and in March the central bank significantly increased the intensity of the open market return, and shows that the current central bank more control through the open market. Therefore, in the first quarter price data will help ease the short-term interest rate expectations, and to promote the stock market reversed its downward trend.

Sina financial market to promote the first terminal target stock index futures

A temperature control unit is expected to add more variables

CPI this year, the trend is still uncertain. Southwest drought, food price stability for the question, pork prices fell below eight-week consecutive break points, the strongest driving forces for the CPI food prices added to the somewhat variable. Especially the CPI hikes resulted in boosting of the next three months, respectively, 1.3,1.6 and 2.1 percentage points in the second quarter and gradually increasing price pressures. "New industries and bring Ushimata high Transmission and Distribution"

Economic practices that, when more than 11% of our GDP, the possibility of high prices also will enlarge. Especially in the economic demand, growth in money supply and food prices took place "three meet again", the inflation risks considerable.

Wang and the economic needs of some sectors of partial adjustment needs. Therefore, there is media speculation in the second quarter will be the introduction of the sensitive period regulation and control policy. This week the Ministry of Finance announced in 2010, major work that explicitly states that the timely introduction of tax reform program resources, improve the property tax system and other important content.

Le vote in private that the current economy is far from being used "hot" to set the tone that simple. Factors in the base period and the incremental effect of decreasing stimulus situation, 34-quarter GDP may come down to 9% or less. Rapid growth may lead to inflation and steady not live, had the slowest growth back to "capital growth." How to iron out economic fluctuations, W-type movements to avoid, by some experts as the core of this year's macro-control work.

Market news combined with Wednesday perspective, the Fed issued a statement, do not want to prematurely raise interest rates, this statement continues to increase the confidence of investors into the market, and promote the stock market in particular commodity prices. Domestic resources stocks, is expected to continue to follow the external market higher. Another expectation of RMB appreciation in advance, will also have implications for resources and commodities prices rally. But to note that a new round of regulation is expected to increase real estate, real estate section may be weak phase.

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